Successive federal governments have intervened sporadically since 2017 to try to increase gas supply and lower prices. The Albanese Government has now decided to undertake structural reform, establishing a gas reservation commencing in 2027.
The government’s stated aim is for the reservation to ‘cater for the domestic shortfalls that are forecast [and] to slightly oversupply the Australian domestic market’. The government has committed to respect existing export contracts, but to require domestic demand to be met first, before any new gas can be exported.
A successful policy should restore the normal function of the gas market by giving certainty to users and producers of gas to invest or divest. It should avoid locking in production and demand that is inconsistent with emissions-reduction targets. It should be simple, easy to understand, fair, and flexible enough to respond to changing circumstances. And it should ensure domestic customers are well supplied, without creating over-reliance on exporters for domestic gas.
In this submission we outline a design that achieves these competing aims within the constraints of the commitments already made.