In this speech for the Actuaries Institute, Grattan CEO John Daley explores the choices that have to be made when modelling retirement incomes. On reasonable assumptions, most people will have an income in retirement sufficient to maintain their lifestyle before retirement, and well above the Age Pension, even if the Superannuation Guarantee doesn’t increase as scheduled from 9.5 per cent to 12 per cent. And lifting compulsory super to 12 per cent of wages will do little to improve the retirement of most middle-income Australians.