Let the markets lead the way


John Daley and Tristan Edis

Reviews of actual price and trading history compared to original forecasts, across six markets aimed at reducing pollution and promoting cleaner sources of energy in Australia, the United States and Europe, found that government and other experts consistently underestimated how much industry innovates and adapts. As a result government targets to reduce pollution were regularly achieved faster, and at lower cost than originally expected. It also finds that experts were routinely wrong in their predictions about which particular measures would be the lowest cost.